How The Next Crypto Bull Run Will Make Us Millions
Last updated: Jul 30, 2023
This video is about the potential for another bull run in the cryptocurrency market, discussing six reasons why it may happen and four reasons opposing that argument.
This video by Brian Jung was published on Aug 9, 2023. Video length: 21:47.
The video discusses the potential for another bull run in the cryptocurrency market.
The speaker presents six reasons why crypto may experience another boom, including the fact that the bear market low has already been reached and historical data showing that Bitcoin tends to enter a multi-month bull market after confirming the end of a bear market. The speaker also mentions the increased adoption of Bitcoin ETFs and institutional interest in cryptocurrencies as factors that could drive prices higher.
However, the speaker also acknowledges four reasons that oppose the argument for another bull run.
The bear market low has already been reached, with Bitcoin crashing from its all-time high to a low.
The extended bear market has been influenced by fundamental factors that have already been priced in.
Bitcoin's current price suggests that the worst has already settled in and the market has accounted for the destruction.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin tends to enter a multi-month bull market after confirming the end of a bear market.
Previous signals in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2020 have all led to substantial rallies in Bitcoin prices.
If history repeats itself, the multi-month bull market would begin in late September or October and continue into 2024.
Bitcoin's price action has been relatively slow, leading to disappointment among some investors.
Bitcoin ETFs and institutional adoption have increased, but the approval of these ETFs by the SEC is still uncertain.
The total crypto market cap is currently around $1.2 trillion, which may limit the potential for significant price increases.
The bear market low has already been reached, with Bitcoin crashing from its all-time high of $69,000 to a low of around $15,500.
The extended bear market has been influenced by fundamental factors that have already been priced in, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's intervention to tame inflation and the collapse of major crypto firms.
Bitcoin's current price of $30,000 suggests that the worst has already settled in and the market has accounted for the destruction that has occurred in the past two years.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin tends to enter a multi-month bull market after confirming the end of a bear market and setting a 12-month high.
Previous signals in 2012, 2015, 2019, and 2020 have all led to substantial rallies in Bitcoin prices in the following years.
If history repeats itself, the multi-month bull market would begin in late September or October and continue into 2024.
Reasons Opposing a Bull Market
Bitcoin's price action has been relatively slow, leading to disappointment among some investors.
Bitcoin ETFs and institutional adoption have increased, but the approval of these ETFs by the SEC is still uncertain.
The total crypto market cap is currently around $1.2 trillion, which may limit the potential for significant price increases.
There is always the possibility of unforeseen events, such as a Black Swan event, that could disrupt the market and prevent a bull run.
Potential for Another Bull Run
The entire crypto market has the potential to 7 to 8X if institutions like BlackRock decide to invest.
XRP's legal win against the SEC has positive implications for the market, including increased confidence and market sentiment.
The legal victory provides more clarity on how cryptocurrencies will be classified and regulated.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024 historically leads to a positive impact on Bitcoin's price.
Bitcoin's network rate is trending at a near all-time high.
Crypto exchanges can now relist XRP on their platforms, providing relief for other targeted altcoins by the SEC.
The legal victory increases confidence among crypto companies and investors to explore other altcoins as viable sources of innovation.
Other crypto companies can continue innovating without fear of regulatory backlash from the SEC.
Ripple Labs' favorable ruling provides more clarity on cryptocurrency classification and regulation.
More clarity on regulation will put an obstacle in the SEC's way and make them more hesitant to regulate by enforcement.
Bitcoin Halving Event
Historically, Bitcoin's price has been positively impacted after each halving event.
After the first halving, Bitcoin's price soared by over 9,000% to reach its first all-time high.
The second halving resulted in a jump of over 3,000% to reach $19,000.
After the third halving, Bitcoin's price reached the present all-time high of $69,000.
A similar price action is expected in 2024, with a new all-time high anticipated in the mid-2025 range.
Bitcoin's Network Rate
Bitcoin's network rate is trending at a near all-time high, indicating increased network activity and interest.
A high network rate suggests growing adoption and usage of Bitcoin.
Increased network activity can contribute to a positive price trend for Bitcoin.
The network rate provides evidence of the continued growth and potential of the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin's network rate is a key indicator of the health and strength of the Bitcoin network.
Economic Conditions
Inflation has reached a 40-year high, causing price increases and financial struggles for many.
Record-breaking inflation numbers are being seen worldwide, affecting everyday items.
Struggling to pay for necessities leads to less saving and investing in the stock or crypto markets.
Higher interest rates make borrowing cash more expensive, deterring people from making big purchases.
Higher interest rates also make fixed income investments like bonds more attractive, shifting focus away from riskier investments like stocks and crypto.
Interest Rates
Interest rates have increased from effectively zero to 5.25% within a 1.5 year span.
Expectations of more rate hikes coming towards the end of the year.
Higher interest rates make borrowing cash more expensive, affecting mortgages and auto loans.
Higher interest rates deter people from making big purchases, leading to less spending and slower economic growth.
Investors may shift towards saving money instead of investing in the markets, resulting in stagnant market performance.
Quantitative Easing
Quantitative easing is a tool used by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation.
Quantitative easing involves increasing the money supply to stimulate economic growth.
Quantitative easing can lead to inflation and devaluation of currency.
Excessive quantitative easing can erode investor confidence and lead to market instability.
Quantitative easing may not be sustainable in the long term and could have negative consequences for the crypto market.
Regulatory Concerns
Increased regulatory scrutiny on the crypto market can lead to uncertainty and market volatility.
Regulatory actions can impact the adoption and acceptance of cryptocurrencies.
Regulatory crackdowns on crypto exchanges and platforms can limit access and hinder market growth.
Regulatory uncertainty can deter institutional investors from entering the crypto market.
Regulatory concerns can create a negative perception of cryptocurrencies, affecting market sentiment.
Tightening and its impact on the market
Tightening is a tool used by the Federal Reserve to reduce the amount of money in the economy.
If not managed properly, tightening can destabilize financial markets and cause stocks and crypto to tank.
Aggressive interest rate hikes have led to liquidity issues for banks, causing fear in the market.
Interest rates are still rising and are expected to remain high throughout 2024.
If banks are struggling now, it could worsen in the future.
Predictions of a recession
Economists, market experts, and big banks are predicting a recession to begin in Q4 of this year.
Dutch bank and HSBC have both warned of a recession starting soon.
Elon Musk and Michael Berry have also expressed concerns about further rate hikes triggering a severe recession.
Based on historical data, the US enters a recession every four to ten years, and the last recession was in 2007-2009.
There have been predictions of a recession throughout this year, but it has not yet materialized.
Regulation and control in the crypto space
New crypto legislation could prevent decentralization, privacy, and peer-to-peer transactions in the crypto market.
Projects like Worldcoin aim to establish universal access to the global economy, but increased regulation may hinder their mission.
Government control over financial transactions could limit the potential of cryptocurrencies.
Skepticism and scams in the crypto space
There is ongoing skepticism about cryptocurrencies, with many people still considering them to be scams.
The presence of scammers, hackers, and individuals trying to take advantage of others deters some from entering the crypto market.
High-profile individuals in the crypto space have been involved in controversies, further fueling skepticism.
The existence of scams and fraudulent activities can discourage potential investors.
Summary
The speaker believes that there are lessons to be learned from the bear market and that crypto is gaining credibility worldwide.
The approval of the Bitcoin ETF application and increasing institutional interest are positive signs for the next bull market.
Regulation in the crypto space is making progress, which could contribute to a potential bull run.
The CEO of BlackRock, who was previously a crypto skeptic, is now applying for a Bitcoin ETF, indicating a shift in attitude towards cryptocurrencies.
The speaker remains long-term bullish on crypto and believes that people will forget about the cons and reasons for an extended bear market once things start picking up.
The speaker encourages viewers to join their crypto Discord community and mentions the benefits of their Patreon membership.